How SHIPTRACE works

Scoring formula

The Ship Score is a 0–100 number computed only when minimum data exists. Otherwise the project shows Insufficient data rather than a misleading number.

ship_score = delivery×0.4 + development×0.2 + availability×0.15 + transparency×0.15 + evidence×0.1

• Current formula version: v1.0.0. Earlier version v0.9.0 (unweighted delivery) is kept so historical snapshots remain reproducible.
• A total requires a delivery component and at least 60% of formula weight available. Missing components are excluded and the total is renormalised over available weight; missing data is never assumed to be good or bad.
• Every snapshot stores the raw component values, total, confidence, data completeness, formula version and calculation timestamp. Historical snapshots are never rewritten; recalculations append new snapshots.

Delivery credit (40%)

Only moderator-approved milestones whose deadlines have passed are counted. Each receives a credit, weighted by importance tier (core ×3, major ×2, minor ×1) so trivial milestones cannot inflate a score. At least 3 counted milestones are required.

delivery = Σ(credit × weight) ÷ Σ(weight), rounded. The exact per-milestone calculation is published on every project page under “Show exact calculation”.

Other components

• Development continuity (20%) = 0.5 × (active weeks in last 12 ÷ 12) + 0.3 × min(1, releases+tags in 90 days ÷ 3) + 0.2 × push recency (≤30 days 1.0, ≤90 days 0.5, ≤180 days 0.2). Raw commit counts are never used as proof of delivery.
• Product availability (15%) = mean success rate of the last 30 timestamped checks for each explicitly listed, approved endpoint.
• Transparency (15%) = 0.3 × min(1, dated roadmap updates ÷ 4) + 0.3 × explanation rate + 0.2 × public documentation + 0.2 × change disclosure rate. Inputs are recorded by moderators from public sources.
• Evidence quality (10%) = mean over accepted evidence of hierarchy weight × (0.6 + 0.4 × completeness), where completeness rewards a URL, title, summary, published date and access timestamp.

Evidence hierarchy

Social posts alone do not prove complex delivery. Screenshots without a source URL are weak evidence. Archived links may supplement but never silently replace primary evidence. Community observations need corroboration by at least one other source.

Moderation process

1. Community submissions are stored as pending and shown as visibly unverified. They never directly change a verified status.
2. A moderator accepts, rejects, or requests clarification, always with a written reason recorded in the audit log.
3. Only moderators change a verified status. Every change records actor, timestamp, reason, evidence references, and prior/new status. Delivery statuses require accepted evidence references.
4. Conflicts of interest can be disclosed on any submission. Project representatives may request corrections but cannot edit status or score.
5. Material history is never silently deleted. Prior decisions remain visible after a correction.

Repository interpretation

When configured, SHIPTRACE fetches public repository metadata, releases, tags, recent activity and the default branch, storing the source and retrieval time. Snapshots are cached and taken at most once per day per repository. A release or tag is an observation that may be cited as evidence; activity on its own is never a conclusion about delivery.

Website checks

Only endpoints explicitly listed by a project and approved by an admin are checked. Each check stores the HTTP result, timestamp and latency. One failed check never proves abandonment; availability uses a rolling window and neutral labels.

Freshness and confidence

Every page shows when data was last checked. Confidence = data completeness × (0.5 + 0.5 × min(1, counted milestones ÷ 8)), displayed as High (≥0.8), Medium (≥0.5) or Low. Data completeness is the share of formula weight backed by actual data.

Status definitions

planned → in_progress → submitted_for_review → shipped | partially_shipped | delayed | no_evidence | cancelled | disputed

Planned

Publicly committed; deadline has not passed.

In progress

Project has published dated progress updates.

Submitted for review

Evidence submitted; awaiting moderator review.

Shipped

Verified from public evidence.

Partially shipped

Part of the commitment is verified from public evidence.

Delayed

Deadline passed; project published an updated timeline or explanation.

No evidence

No qualifying evidence found as of the last check.

Cancelled

Project publicly withdrew the commitment.

Disputed

Status disputed; excluded from score until resolved.

Dispute handling

Anyone can file a correction or dispute from a project page or Evidence Room. A disputed milestone is excluded from the score until a moderator records a resolution. Resolutions are public, and the milestone's status history keeps both the original decision and the resolution.

Limitations

• SHIPTRACE tracks public commitments only. Private roadmaps and unannounced work are invisible to it.
• Moderator judgement is involved in paraphrasing commitments and assessing scope; reasons are published so they can be challenged.
• The Ship Score is not an investment recommendation, security audit, legal conclusion, or guarantee of future delivery.
• SHIPTRACE never calls a project a scam, fraud or similar based on inactivity or a low score. It records the absence of evidence with a date.
• Platforms are not scraped contrary to their rules; sources are submitted as URLs and reviewed.

Questions or corrections about this methodology can be filed through the correction form.